2009 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 3/19/2010

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2009, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2008 rank.

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST YEAR	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	BAL	30.5%	3	31.7%	9-7	16.7%	8	-11.8%	4	2.0%	8
2	GB	30.4%	11	39.7%	11-5	22.5%	5	-14.0%	2	-6.1%	32
3	NE	29.1%	9	22.2%	10-6	29.6%	1	1.7%	16	1.2%	13
4	PHI	28.4%	1	30.5%	11-5	13.5%	10	-10.7%	6	4.3%	2
5	DAL	25.5%	19	23.2%	11-5	24.9%	3	0.4%	12	1.0%	14
6	NO	23.5%	13	27.1%	13-3	27.8%	2	1.5%	14	-2.7%	28
7	MIN	18.4%	18	23.4%	12-4	16.1%	9	1.8%	17	4.1%	4
8	IND	17.9%	8	19.6%	14-2	20.3%	6	1.7%	15	-0.7%	20
9	NYJ	16.9%	17	19.6%	9-7	-9.0%	22	-23.4%	1	2.5%	6
10	PIT	16.1%	2	22.0%	9-7	17.9%	7	-2.1%	9	-3.9%	30
11	SD	13.6%	7	17.5%	13-3	22.9%	4	9.6%	23	0.3%	16
12	DEN	11.9%	22	12.8%	8-8	4.7%	18	-7.3%	7	-0.1%	18
13	ARI	11.4%	21	16.0%	10-6	10.1%	13	0.3%	11	1.6%	10
14	CAR	9.4%	6	3.0%	8-8	1.5%	20	-10.9%	5	-2.9%	29
15	HOU	9.4%	23	14.3%	9-7	13.2%	11	6.0%	19	2.1%	7
16	MIA	4.9%	14	0.6%	7-9	7.5%	16	4.3%	18	1.8%	9
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST YEAR	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	NYG	3.9%	4	-5.7%	8-8	11.9%	12	6.4%	21	-1.6%	27
18	ATL	1.8%	16	1.5%	9-7	8.9%	14	6.1%	20	-1.0%	22
19	CIN	1.2%	26	2.6%	10-6	2.9%	19	0.8%	13	-0.9%	21
20	SF	1.0%	25	6.7%	8-8	-10.2%	23	-11.8%	3	-0.6%	19
21	WAS	-5.9%	12	-6.2%	4-12	-4.7%	21	-0.1%	10	-1.3%	23
22	TEN	-6.4%	5	-12.3%	8-8	7.6%	15	12.7%	27	-1.3%	24
23	JAC	-8.5%	20	-6.7%	7-9	7.0%	17	14.1%	28	-1.3%	25
24	BUF	-9.3%	24	-12.5%	6-10	-17.1%	29	-6.5%	8	1.2%	12
25	CHI	-19.8%	15	-19.1%	7-9	-16.8%	28	7.1%	22	4.1%	3
26	CLE	-23.3%	27	-26.6%	5-11	-13.0%	24	18.7%	30	8.4%	1
27	TB	-23.8%	10	-29.3%	3-13	-15.7%	26	11.3%	25	3.2%	5
28	KC	-27.6%	30	-24.7%	4-12	-14.2%	25	11.9%	26	-1.5%	26
29	SEA	-30.8%	28	-25.6%	5-11	-16.7%	27	14.9%	29	0.9%	15
30	OAK	-32.9%	29	-35.5%	5-11	-22.3%	30	10.6%	24	0.0%	17
31	STL	-45.1%	31	-42.9%	1-15	-26.4%	32	20.3%	31	1.6%	11
32	DET	-50.7%	32	-50.3%	2-14	-25.2%	31	21.2%	32	-4.3%	31

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
WEIGHTED DVOA [3] is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
2009 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
PYTHAGOREAN WINS [4] represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed.
VARIANCE [5] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	2009 SCHED	RANK	PYTH WINS	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	BAL	30.5%	9-7	11.8	1	29.2%	3	-1.3%	21	11.6	4	13.0%	12
2	GB	30.4%	11-5	11.0	5	37.3%	1	-8.8%	31	11.8	1	17.5%	20
3	NE	29.1%	10-6	11.3	3	27.9%	5	5.7%	7	11.6	3	19.5%	24
4	PHI	28.4%	11-5	10.9	7	20.6%	7	0.3%	18	10.2	10	20.5%	25
5	DAL	25.5%	11-5	11.2	4	31.4%	2	1.8%	14	11.3	7	7.8%	3
6	NO	23.5%	13-3	11.6	2	13.6%	13	-1.7%	23	11.6	5	16.3%	18
7	MIN	18.4%	12-4	10.2	9	14.0%	12	-6.6%	29	11.6	2	11.5%	11
8	IND	17.9%	14-2	11.0	6	11.0%	14	0.6%	17	10.8	9	15.9%	16
9	NYJ	16.9%	9-7	9.4	14	20.0%	8	2.6%	11	11.4	6	21.5%	27
10	PIT	16.1%	9-7	10.4	8	17.8%	10	-2.6%	26	9.2	14	11.4%	9
11	SD	13.6%	13-3	10.1	10	23.0%	6	-1.4%	22	11.1	8	7.1%	1
12	DEN	11.9%	8-8	9.4	13	4.0%	16	1.9%	13	8.1	18	16.9%	19
13	ARI	11.4%	10-6	10.1	11	14.2%	11	-9.1%	32	9.3	13	20.7%	26
14	CAR	9.4%	8-8	8.9	15	28.4%	4	7.9%	3	8.2	17	23.9%	30
15	HOU	9.4%	9-7	9.6	12	18.2%	9	-3.0%	27	9.4	12	8.8%	4
16	MIA	4.9%	7-9	8.7	16	2.8%	17	7.9%	2	7.2	20	9.3%	5
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	2009 SCHED	RANK	PYTH WINS	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	NYG	3.9%	8-8	8.1	19	-6.6%	23	6.4%	4	7.4	19	25.6%	31
18	ATL	1.8%	9-7	8.6	17	-3.7%	22	5.8%	6	9.0	15	9.8%	6
19	CIN	1.2%	10-6	8.4	18	-3.0%	21	1.0%	16	8.4	16	23.2%	29
20	SF	1.0%	8-8	7.8	20	8.2%	15	-6.8%	30	9.5	11	10.3%	8
21	WAS	-5.9%	4-12	7.3	22	-1.6%	19	-0.3%	19	5.8	23	14.0%	14
22	TEN	-6.4%	8-8	7.5	21	-0.3%	18	2.8%	9	6.8	21	32.9%	32
23	JAC	-8.5%	7-9	7.3	23	-12.8%	24	-1.9%	25	5.5	25	19.0%	23
24	BUF	-9.3%	6-10	6.9	24	-2.5%	20	4.6%	8	5.8	24	22.2%	28
25	CHI	-19.8%	7-9	5.7	25	-23.3%	27	-0.8%	20	6.7	22	13.9%	13
26	CLE	-23.3%	5-11	5.3	26	-17.3%	25	1.3%	15	4.3	28	15.3%	15
27	TB	-23.8%	3-13	5.1	27	-19.7%	26	10.2%	1	3.8	29	16.1%	17
28	KC	-27.6%	4-12	4.6	28	-27.6%	29	2.8%	10	4.7	27	11.4%	10
29	SEA	-30.8%	5-11	3.7	30	-42.4%	30	-4.6%	28	5.0	26	18.6%	22
30	OAK	-32.9%	5-11	4.4	29	-25.0%	28	6.2%	5	2.8	31	17.6%	21
31	STL	-45.1%	1-15	2.5	31	-44.0%	31	-1.8%	24	1.6	32	10.1%	7
32	DET	-50.7%	2-14	2.3	32	-49.2%	32	2.3%	12	2.9	30	7.8%	2